习作一篇，请大家指教 Argument 147
[color=#3366ff][font=Times New Roman][size=4]147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine."Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."[/size][/font][/color]
[color=#3366ff][font=Times New Roman][size=4][/size][/font][/color]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4]By analyzing a recent survey on the sales of Whirlwind video-games and young players, it draws a conclusion that the sales are likely to increase obviously in the next few months. It seems that it is well-presented, however, it is not well-reasoned.[/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4][/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4]First and foremost, without offering reliable information on sales trend, the claim that the sales of Whirlwind video games, which have declined over the past two years will be reversed is unsupported. Neither do we know how many video-games are sold every year, nor do we know how many of them will be increased in the future. Without enough evidences, we can not draw any conclusions about it, or it will be invalidate. Moreover, even it is based on reliable information, we don’t know whether its statistic methods are scientific or not, which can also influence the final prediction. However, without accounting these issues and other possible alternative problems, it predicts that the sales will be reversed seems unreasonable.[/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4][/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4]Moreover, the next few months is not a long time frame, which can not be measured as a standard for the dramatically increase of video-game sales. Marketing experts tell us, if we want to examine the tendency of some product’s sales, we should put them in the long timeframe, rather than in short time. Otherwise, our examination will be unscientific, which can cause us make some mistakes.[/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4][/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4]Finally, the notion that the 10 to 25 years old teenagers are most likely to play video games is also unsubstantial. Young children, especially those who are 10 to 18 years old children, they are strictly restrained to play video-games by their parents. That’s because, in their parents’ mind, playing video-games is not only waste time, but also cause them fall into bad habits, which are not good for their healthy growth. Even parents don’t stop them, some of them want to spend much time on their studies, rather than on playing, that’s because they want to make good preparations for their own future. However, by hastily generalizing 10 to 25 years old teenagers, which makes it can not be dependended on.[/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4][/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][size=4]Overall, the reasoning behind the sales of the video-games will be reversed in the next few months as represented above seems reasonable. However, without close scrutinizing and considering different kinds of possibilities, we should be prudent on drawing any conclusions about it.[/size][/font]
[font=Times New Roman][/font]
[[i] 本帖最后由 dreamlover123 于 2008-7-4 00:10 编辑 [/i]]
页:
[1]