argue1,历时4个钟头（包括吃饭），非牛人的初次动笔，望大家猛拍，给点鼓励
[color=#191919][font=Times New Roman]TOPIC: ARGUMENT1 - The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products. [/font][/color][font=Times New Roman][color=#191919] [/color][/font]
[color=#191919][font=Times New Roman]"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."[/font][/color]
[color=#191919][font=Times New Roman]WORDS: 561
TIME: 04:08:48
DATE: 2008-8-11 Love F 18:17:04[/font][/color]
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[color=#191919][font=Times New Roman]In this analysis, the arguer recommends that the company should build the next store in Plainsville for a simple reason that their stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. To substantiate the recommendation, the arguer cites the example of the local health club's vicissitude and the high sales status of running shoes and exercise clothing. Additionally, the arguer predicts a new group customers--schoolchildren in Plainsville. Plausible as it may seem, I am afraid the argument is unconvincing for several critical flows.[/font][/color]
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[color=#191919][font=Times New Roman]First of all, the arguer fails to establish the causal between the high sales status of running shoes and exercise clothing and the residents who pay closely attention to healthy lives in Plainsville. There is no information to justify that the sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are keeping a high point because of the residents in Plainsville concern with healthy lives. Perhaps they buy running shoes and exercise clothing for no reason than that they just like it ,or their adorable sport stars wear these running shoes and exercise clothing. Besides, it is the same to the local health club whose members increasing thanks to the residents in Plainsville who seek after high healthy lives. Lacking evidence that the high sales status of running shoes and exercise clothing due to residents in Plainsville are concerned with leading healthy lives, the arguer's recommendation about opening the next store in Plainsville is unjustified.[/font][/color]
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[color=#191919][font=Times New Roman]In addition, even I concede that the high sales status of running shoes and exercise clothing is attributable to residents in Plainsville are concerned with leading healthy lives, the arguer provides no sufficiently evidence to prove that the schoolchildren in Plainsville will become their new customers. As we all know, it is not necessary to buy the store's productions by schoolchildren, while they are required to participate in the "fitness for life" program. Perhaps they can eat
health food in other stores, or they can use another way to join in that program, such as doing exercise for keeping health. In short, without better evidence to substantiate arguer's recommendation, the arguer cannot rely on it to draw any conclusion about building the next store in Plainsville.[/font][/color]
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[color=#191919][font=Times New Roman]Finally, even assuming that schoolchildren in Plainsville will be their new customers in future, it is entirely possible that the arguer overlooks other factors to affect residents’ behavior in Plainsville. For example, suppose that residents in Plainsville have their own eating habits which they do not like to eat the company's health food or their other health-related products. If so, it is risk to build this store in Plainsville. Without ruling out this and other alternatives scenarios, the arguer cannot reasonably infer that opening the next store in Plainsville will gain large profits.[/font][/color]
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[color=#191919][font=Times New Roman]To sum up, the arguer's recommendation about building next store in Plainsville is not well supported as it stands. To bolster it ,the arguer must provide more evidence that the sales summit of running shoes and exercise clothing and the change of the local health club --and not some other phenomenon--has been responsible for residents in Plainsville who concern a leading healthy lives. To better assess the recommendation, I would
need to know what is the residents’ habits and customs in Plainsville. Also, I would want to proceed a deeply survey about the sales status of health food and other health - related products in Plainsville.[/font][/color]
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