处女作求拍，请大家帮帮忙
这是我第一次写，大家尽量拍，太谢谢了。TOPIC: ARGUMENT130 - The following appeared in the annual report of a chain of stores that sell supplies for do-it-yourself home improvements.
"Current reports indicate that sales of new homes nationwide declined by 9 percent during the past year, while sales of existing homes increased by 16 percent. Thus we can expect that the percentage of homeowners who will be making repairs or improvements to their homes will also increase. In addition, people who buy existing homes will have more money left over after the purchase to spend on home improvements. Finally, people who buy existing homes are more likely to make improvements themselves, as opposed to paying someone else. These factors combined indicate we can expect an increasing demand for products in all our stores nationwide, thus increasing our profits in the coming year."
The conclusion endorsed by the arguer is that the stores will experience a increase in their profits in the coming years on the base of a series of unwarrant assumption.At first glance ,it might be appealing to agree with the arguer,but close scrutiny will reveal the several logical flaws lurking in the ratioconation of the arguer.
First, the arguer fails to convince me that the trend that the sales of the existing houses is a persisting one.The past year may be just an aberation,and I do not redard 16 as a remarkable increase.Without ruling out this possibility,no conclusion should be achieved.
Secondly,even if the trend that the sales of the existing houses is a persisting one,it is gratuitous to conclude that the percentage of homeowners who will be making repairs or improvements to their houses will increase ,merely for the ungrounded assumption that the existing houses are not in good quality.
Thirdly,granted that the existing houses are always not in good quality,the arguer fails to take into account the fact that the people who will prefer existing houses are always those who are not very rich.As a consequence ,they may not have much money left after the purcjhase of the house.
Fourthly,even if I concede that people who buy existing houses may have more money left over,the arguer unfairly assumes that they will spend the money on the home improvements,while ignoring other possibiulities.They may use the money left on other things such as education,which takes a big proportion in the expence of a normal Chinese family.
Furthermore,even assuming that all the assumption above are satisfied,no evidence is provided that these people who buy existing houses will make improvements themselves.Although thay may not have much money left,they may also hire others to do it for better quality,or they may just not make improvements.
Finally,the arguer offers no evidence to support the assertion that a nationwide increase will be experienced.The arguer takes it for granted the nationwide trend will be applicable in all local places,withou redarding the specific characteristics that the local places may posssess.It is highly possible that there will be an increase in most stores except for some areas.Without this possibilities ruled out,I could not assess the credibility of the argument.
To sum up ,the argument is untenable on the base of several ungrounded assumptions,in order to bolster it ,the arguer should offer more detailed evidence about the real desire of the people.To better assess the validity of the argument ,I would also need to know the quality of the stores' products and the competiton that may hinder the stores from earning a profit. 是不是太分散了？攻击的错误太多，分析不够深入。我觉得集中攻击三四个错误，可能会更好些
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