147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."


time :1:00
outline: the survey's conclusion is incredible for having clear information of the process.The advertisement will not success without careful operation. It is possible that other companies have developed similar games.
调查的信息不清楚，可能不可信；没有关于广告方面的细节不一定能起到吸引10-25岁人群的效果，另外文章没有交代其他竞争对手的情况，盲目乐观了。
The author claims that whirlwind video game’s sales will have a dramatical increase in the next few months. To support the claim the author pointed out that Whirlwind has just developed several games with lifelike graphics which players prefer according to a survey. The author also point out that the company have been operating an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. However, careful examination of the evidences reveals that the argument is not as substantiated as it stands in several aspects.

Firstly, without clear information of how the survey cited by the author was conducted, I can not accept the conclusion drawing from the survey. The argument does not indicate who conduct the survey, who responded and how the survey was random sampled. It is likely possible that the responders can not represent the over all players. Additionally, considering that Wirlwind games’ object is the people 10 to 25 years old, it is entirely possible that the responders are mostly over 25 years old, if so, the survey can not have any reference for Whirlwind. Less of the clear information weakens the survey's result that the games providing lifelike graphics will be popular. What's more, even if the games will be popular, it is entirely possible that the young costumers can not afford such games because of the requirement of the most up-to-date computers which are expensive usually.

Secondly, the author assumes that the advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old will success, but there is no evidence to support the assumption. How does the advertisement been designed? What’s kind of medium in which has the advertisement choice to poster? Whether will the medium attract people 10 to 25 years old? Without carefully operation, the advertisement will not success as the author expected, not along increasing the sales dramatically.

Thirdly, even if the author can substantiate forgoing assumptions, it can not convince me either, because the author fails to point out the competition of the video games market. The author unfairly assumes that there are only Whirlwind developed such games and will take over the market solo, however in commonsense it is not the case. Are there any other companies aiming at the players 10 to 25 years old have developed such games? How do the competing companies advertise their products? I can not accept the claim without clearer information about market.

In summary, the argument can not convince me for the above aspects. To support the claim the author should indicate clear information of how the survey was conducted and how the advertisement has been designed. To better assess the claim the author should give detailed information of the competing companies.


178The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company.

"In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours—resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year."

time :0:48
outline: the new policy will cause the best workers to leave .To maintain the amount of product the factories might have to operate longer for the lost of best workers. The revenue will be no enough to earn a profit even if the cost is saved for the declining market.
新政策出台可能导致好工人流失，因为要干更多才可能和以前一样的收入，好工人可能会选择其他条件更好的公司。因此要保持产量的话可能要花更多时间，而不是减少时间。也可能因为整个市场的下滑，即使这些政策有效，利润也不会增加。

Will the costs be saved? Will the best workers keep their jobs? Will the company earn a profit in the coming year, if the National Brush Company (NBC) pays the workers for each product instead of the time they spend producing brushes. The president of NBC think it will be the case, however, I can not accept the opinion for several aspects.

First of all, the president assumes that to earn more money in the new policy worker must be more efficient, so the best worker will keep their job. However, the result might be the contrary dramatically. It is likely possible that good workers can not accept the new policy for they have to work more time to get the same money they earn now, so they would like leave to another company, and the other company will like to get them too, since they are best workers. Additionally, will the brushes be better? I don't think so since so many best workers will choice to leave.

Secondly, the president assumes that the new policy will reduce the costs on electricity and security, with the factories' possibility to operate for fewer hours, It seems reasonable. However the author does not establish an causal correction between the new policy and the saving on electricity and security costs. To reduce the operation's hours, the factories must can produce at least the same amount of brushes as before in order to maintain the revenue. While, as I have pointed out that the best worker may leave the company, it is difficult to keep the same amount as before. If so, the company will have to employ more workers or have to operate more hours, the purpose of the new policy to reduce the cost will turn to be unsuccessful.

Thirdly, as we all know, the profit is a function of revenues and costs. Even if the president can support evidence to convince the forgoing two assumptions, it only seems that the costs will reduce, while will the revenues be enough to get a profit in coming years. There is no clear information about the market, even the productivity of the NBC increases, it is entirely possible that because the declining market the revenues will not be as enough as the president expects.

In conclusion, the argument is not so substantiated as the president has claimed. before doing any decision, the company has better take other facts into account, such as will the new policy cause the lost of best workers? Will the brush market be decline in the coming year or even longer?





7The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."


Time:0:29
Outline: no clear data to show the pollution level have increased. Should Frank be responsible for the pollution? There are not any information of Ann’s policy to solve the problems.
However “either-or”fault still exist
没有明确的证据或数据证明有污染增加的情况，工厂不一定带来污染比如电子产业，病人增加也可能是因为大范围的流行病。而且frank不一定对污染负责，可能也反对增加工厂。此外，认为是绿色组织成员就一定能解决污染是不合理的。
The author suggests that residents of Clearview should elect Ann Green rather than Frank Braun. To support the suggestion, the author points out that during the past year air pollution levels have increased for the doubled factories, and there were more patient with respiratory illness in the local hospital last year. However, the author's evidence to support the suggestion is unsubstantiated in several aspects.

First of all, the author unfairly claims that the air pollution levels have increased. there is not any detailed data about the air pollution. What about the 25 percent more patients with respiratory illness? It is likely possible that the increasing patients were cause by a pandemic respiratory illness. As to the double numbers of factories, there is no evidence to judge that these factories have created lots of pollution, which maybe product electric products without air pollution as we all know. So, without clear data, it can not convince me the pollution levels have increased.

Secondly, even if the pollution levels have increased, Should Frank Braun be responsible for it? In the argument, the author doesn’t point out any evidence. It is entirely possible that Frank greatly opposed to build these factories. If he or she is elected to be the mayor, he will mend the policy.

Thirdly, even if the forgoing assumptions can be supported by new evidence, the author unfairly assumes that Ann Green will solve the environmental problems in Cleareview. What will he or she do if been elected? It is not convincing to say that he or she can do better because he or she is a member of the Good Earth Coalition. We should look over the policy rather than the permission.

In sum, the argument is not substantiated as it stands. To support it, the author must give more evidence that the air pollution levels have increased because of these factories, and Frank should be responsible for it. To better assess the argument, what Ann will do if been elected should been introduced to us.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT178 - The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company.
"In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year."

Outline: 1. 工人欲速而不达，产品质量不高；
       2．多种因素使工人考虑他们的就业，不仅仅是工资；
       3．新措施不一定带来高利润。

The decision presented in the argument aiming at reducing the expense seems made somewhat hesitantly. To support the pay system reformation, the president cited a series of anticipated results, without close scrutiny of each fact. Absent evidence that the change will bring about a boost in profit, I cannot be convinced especially considering the following reasons.

First of all, the decision maker overlooked the fact that as the emphases moving from time to quantity, it is entirely possible for workers inspired by money to being rushed into producing without proper care of the quality. Admittedly, a sharp increase in production and an acute decrease in quality will not be the desired results the president want. Moreover, we are all aware of the power of money, and we have good reasons to believe some group of workers tend to attain the considerable mount through unfair access, which perhaps even lead to the loss of company benefit. In addition, it is quite puzzling to determine which one make the certain brush due to the stream lining production.

The argument is also weakened by the assumption that a minimized staff and a team of best workers will ensure the manufacturing efficiency after carrying out the policy. Nevertheless, the head of company has not accounted for the possibility that it is various factors that influence a worker's decision whether or not staying in the company. As it turns out, people may come to work only to accomplish a certain period of their life regardless of poor earning, or they just find the company is located quite near their home, taking the traffic convenience as first in their mind. For that matter, it is just as likely that the best workers would leave for a better job or stronger challenge no matter how much the NBC assure them. Therefore, the chairperson cannot confidently conclude that the new decision may be much of use to gain his goal.

Finally, there is absolutely no sufficient evidence that the cost saving and high profit depend on the way how to measure the paid. Improving in the producing procedure and allocating the sources wisely are as likely to achieve the expected results of saving the expense. Similarly, good marketing strategy and fantastic advertising skills are proved to be effective in rising return. Besides, the worker's requirement to overwork for more income, the excessive "smart" workers, and the severe poor quality reveal that savings on electricity and security costs as well as increased profit seem to be a beautiful dream.

In conclusion, the argument ,while it seems logical and sound, has several fallacies as discussed above. The president's assumptions on the basis of subjective expectation cannot convince me the application of new decision will change a lot in saving money, let alone increasing profit. However, it could be further improved by ruling out other possible factors may disturb the results.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
Outline:1.调查方式及调查群体不可信；
2.即使调查结果可信，对游戏认同也不一定保证会买；
3.10--25岁的人没有足够的经济实力，并且他们的喜好会随着时间改变。

This editorial concludes that the newly introduced games designed for 10---25  years old people may save the declined sales in time. To support this conclusion, the editorial proponent provides a survey which is  vague and informative. Besides, the author fails to establish a relationship between how they evaluate the product and the desire to buy it. Clearly, this argument suffers from several critical flaws and is therefore unconvincing.

In the first place, the validity of the survey is doubtful. The claim does no indicate who conducted the poll and how the poll was operated. For instance, it is equally possible that the conductor limit the alternative games in survey left to be suspectable. Since the argument offers no evidence, the samples are representative of all game players, the results of survey are insufficient to support the decision.

A second problem with the argument is that ever if the date in the survey is reasonable, to some extent, the author assumes further that people who are fond of the lifelike games are also willing to pay for them. Yet the claim contains no evidence to hold it. Nevertheless, we sill cannot draw the conclusion the profit would definitely under the previous assumption. It is most likely that people prefer other company's products or the other features in the game do not please the consumers. Until these otherwise factors are rule out, the assumption of sales remain highly unaccepted.

Finally, the argument shows that Whirtwind is interested in selling the video games to 10--25 years old people. Accordingly, many years must pass before those people be sophisticated enough to make buying decisions when it comes to entertaining consuming. Moreover, when these target potential customers grow older it is entirely possible that they will favor another video game as their interests and hates might change thoroughly over time. In short, directing at certain group to gain high revenue is unacceptable when there is no compelling evidence to support it .

In sum, this is a weak conclusion. Perhaps the adviser can strengthen it by considering choosing more representative samples, in order to  show who is the main body of the customers, not just offer a final result. To better assess the argument, I would need more information about the procedure the survey conducted and the market background the company stands in.

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TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 518
TIME: 00:30:00
DATE: 2008-4-30 15:09:35

In this argument, the speaker concludes that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically. To justify the argument, the speaker cites the result of a survey, the fact that Whirlwind has just introduced several games directed at the young. However, the speaker commits several critical fallacies as it stands.

Firstly, the reliability and the representative of the survey are doubtful, on which the argument relies. Yet, the speaker provides little evidence to substantiate it. Perhaps the responds are only limited in a small area or block that citizens there tend to be more interested in lifelike graphics, while most people who tend to play and buy the companies products prefer other characters like sound effects or visual images. If so, the survey’s result then is unconvincing and no further conclusion should be proposed.

Secondly, the argument relies on an additional assumption that the people who responded the survey would buy the video games when the game company provides the character they describe. However, this assumption is unwarranted. Maybe the players are usually playing other's video games and even if the most important features they would like to see is satisfied, the sales of the video games would not rise correspondingly. Also, the speaker unnecessarily equates the most important character in the video game with the most essential character for buying the video games. Nevertheless, no evidence is provided to prove the lifelike graphics still plays the main role in determining whether to buy the games.

Thirdly, though the young between 10 to 25 years old like to play video games, it does not imply they would buy the video games definitely. At least, no effectual evidence is offered to support this point. There is no causal relationship between playing and consuming. As known to all, the young people are not that rich and therefore would not consume the video games easily. It is highly possible the price of these new games is far beyond the threshold of the young group. Therefore, due to these possibilities, the speaker can not convince me to prove that the campaign is appealing enough and would certainly bring more sales of the video games unless more evidence is provided.

Also, there is no explicit established relationship between the survey result and the young age group. Granted that the survey represents the opinions widely, it is equally possible it is not representative of the perspectives of the young, who Whirlwind is targeted mainly. No effective evidence illustrate the young would also like the lifelike graphics in the video games. Without such evidence, the speaker can not conclude by itself the games with such features would attract the young, despite the rising of sales of the video games.

In sum, the speaker's claim lacks evidence and is unconvincing in several aspects. The speaker should provide more evidence to prove the survey is reliable and representative and the character of the new games would definitely lead to more consumption of the games. Also, it should be guaranteed that the survey stands mainly for the opinion of the consumers the company target at.



TOPIC: ARGUMENT178 - The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company.

"In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year."
WORDS: 488

DATE: 2008-5-2 21:57:14
这篇当时写得超没感觉, 那位强人指点一下ARGU 应该怎么准备, 还有那些大错小错该怎么分.
本人未上过新东方,所以很多东西不明白,望各位大虾请教


In this argument, the speaker concludes that the National Brush Company should pay the employees for brush numbers they make instead of the working time. The speaker cites the possible outcome of more and better brushes, reduce of staff size, savings on electricity and security costs. However, the speaker commits several critical fallacies.

Firstly, the speaker assumes that the change of paying would be definitely effective in prompting the quality of brushes. However, this assumption is unwarranted. If changing it into determining the brushes on amount, it is more likely the staff would care only about the number they produce but neglect the quality of each brush. Then the workers would all focus on how to gain the largest income but how to promote the quality and other characters the brushes enjoy. Thus, the speaker's claim might appear unreasonable and unconvincing in reference to the contrary consequences.


Secondly, the speaker hasty generalize the cost of the production can be curtailed. Yet, no strong evidence is provided to substantiate the assumption that the staff size can be reduced, and the electricity costs can be saved. There is no causal relationship between more brushes and improved quality of brushed, let alone the lower cost as the argument claimed. In one sense, the speaker falls to offer any evidence to prove that the increasing amount of brushed would satisfy the market requirement both in the short and long term run. Perhaps the require of brushed sharply increase in a short time and the reduced size of staff would certainly not produce enough to supply, then the company would lose a greater number of consumers. Thus, the speaker can not regard the reducing of staff as a advantage for itself remains dubious.

In the other sense, large number alternatives, might add up to electricity and security costs. Operating for fewer hours on brushes is no indication of declining in electricity. Perhaps the amount of electricity per hour increased tremendously. Or, the process of manufacturing is complex than before and requires more electricity. If any of these scenarios take place, it is more likely the electricity cost would rise, contrarily to the speaker's expectance.

Thirdly, the argument overlooks a lot more aspects in determining a company's profit. Other processes involve the advertisements and sales of these brushes. Also, no causal relationship between better workers and profit is established. Perhaps more brushes is made indeed, but it does not enjoy a corresponding sale. Therefore, the brushes are useless and can cost money for payment to the workers. Under these situations, a profit is hard to expect to the speaker's claim.

In sum, the speaker's claim is unconvincing and unjustifiable as it stands. To justify it, the speaker should provide more evidence that the change can effectively lead to more and quality brushed. Also, the profit is predictable for the more brushed it makes and less costs in electricity and security is indeed the case.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT7 - The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.

"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."
WORDS: 519
TIME: 00:40:00
DATE: 2008-5-4 20:54:59

The speaker concludes that the residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green (AG), rather than Frank Braun (FB), a member of Clearview town council, for the current members are not protecting the environment. To justify it, the speaker points out that the factory numbers doubled, air pollution increased and more respiratory illnesses in local hospital. However, the speaker commits several critical fallacies.

Firstly, the argument relies on the assumption that the environment is deteriorated. Yet, this assumption is unwarranted and the evidence cited is insufficient to substantiate it. On the one side, the doubled factories do not indicate more environmental problems. Perhaps the factories are environment friendly due to the hardworking dedication of FB. Or perhaps they primarily do not create the waste which will pollute the environment. On the other side, the more patients with respiratory illness have no causal relationship with air pollution level increasing. It is highly possible people are now more concerned about their health and go to hospital more than before, thus more cases is diagnosed which remain undetected earlier. Also, the respiratory illnesses might be caused by other alternatives in spite of air pollution, such of some bad hygiene and eating habits. To reach the speaker’s conclusion, strong evidence should be offered to prove that the pollution indeed take place.

Secondly, the argument further assumes the duty relies on FB. Nevertheless, no evidence is offered to support this crucial point. May be FB is largely concerned about environmental issues and devotes large efforts, but he is powerless to fight against all the other members. If this is the case, even AG is as devoting as FB, the result would stay the same automatically.

Thirdly, no evidence shows AG is sufficiently enough to suit the job as the mayor. As we all know, being a major is quite different from being a member in a specific institute, AG might not be suitable for political affairs, lack of personal capacities to handle all other official affairs in spite of environmental issues. If so, though may be the environmental problems can be solved as the speaker concerns, problems in other fields might take place, like in education and transportation affairs.

Finally, granted the ability of AG to undertake the major position and the presence of the environmental problems, it does not by it self equate the problem in Clearview can be solved fundamentally. The mere fact that AG come from the Good Earth Coalition stands little for the capacity of AG to solve the already declination of environment. Perhaps AG is just a member of that coalition but knows little about effect managing official policies and steps towards certain problems like the environmental problems. If so, the election of AG also can not satisfy the residents by solving the environmental problems effectively.

In sum, the speaker's claim is inadequate and unpersuasive as it stands. To strengthen it, the speaker should provide more evidence to support the environmental problems indeed exists and FB has the main duty.
Also, it should be guaranteed that AG is suitable for the major and can effectively solve the previous problem.

phenomenal argument 178

TOPIC: ARGUMENT178 - The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company.
"In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year."

Outline:
开头  根据工人生产的产品数支付工资可能会提高刷子的产量
论点
1. 刷子的产量的提升可能同时导致刷子质量的下降, 废品率的上升, 这样工厂就要在产品检验上投入更多资金, 还可能会影响公司的声誉
2. 那些偷懒的员工可能会在刷子质量上做手脚, 以提高自己的产品数, 而认真负责的员工则会受到打击
结尾  刷子质量的下降, 废品率的上升, 优秀员工的流失都有可能导致利润的下降

As the author claimed in the report, it is possible that the production of brushes will increase if the National Brush Company decided to pay their employees for each brush they produce since the workers will be encouraged to work harder to produce more brushes and earn more money. However, the author failed to notice the shortcomings of this policy.

First, as soon as this policy is adopted, it is quite likely that the workers will pay more attention on the quantity of the brushes they produced rather than the quality. Then there would be more unqualified products which will waste the company a great sum of money on raw materials. Even worse, the company may be compelled to hire more workers to examine the quality of its products since the low quality brushes may impair the fame of the company and cause a declination in the sales of its brushes. All these will result in a raise in cost and a diminution of the revenue.

Second, there could be some tricky workers take advantage of this policy by producing just qualified products to save time and produce more brushes. They may practice the deception secretly which will be difficult to expose. On the contrary, they may be regarded as industrious workers since they could produce more brushes than other workers. Then the workers who produces brushes carefully may not receive the desired payment and feel unfair. They will leave the company to find a place which will treat them fairly.

In general, as the company may undertake a lose on the quality, an impairment on its fame and the possibility of losing its best workers once the new policy is adopted, it is not convincing that the company will earn a profit in the coming year.

phenomenal argument 178

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."

Outline:
1. 公司销售方面的问题
Whirlwind的游戏销量降低可能并不是游戏内容的问题, 可能的原因: 售价, 竞争
2. 游戏方面的问题
虽然真实的画面很重要, 游戏的其他方面也很重要
3. 消费者方面的问题
10~25岁的人可能没有足够的经济能力购买最先进的电脑

In this argument, the author claims that since Whirlwind have introduced games features lifelike graphics with an extensive advertising campaign, the sales of its games will increase dramatically. However, several important factors which influence the sales of the games greatly are ignored by the author.

First, the author do not notice why the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years. He just optimistically think since the company has introduced games features lifelike graphics with an extensive advertising campaign, the sales will increase dramatically. However, the sales of its video games may be influenced by many factors among which graphics and advertising may not be the most important one. Other factors such as the competence of other video game companies, the price of the game may be the main cause of the declination.

Second, about the games produced by Whirlwind. The author only noticed these games provide lifelike graphics, but ignored many other features such as originality, a good story and  music are also indispensable for a good game. It is possible that Whirlwind also put too much emphasize on the graphics and ignored the other features as the author did. Then these unbalanced games may only give people a strong impact at the first sight, but soon faded out in their memory since just lifelike graphics will not make a game playable.

Third, about the people who play video games. According to the survey, the age-group most likely to play video games are people 10 to 25 years old. However, since most of them are still students, they may not have enough money to buy the most up-to-date computers that are required to play such games.

In general, what the author state in this argument can not support his point convincingly, a great many factors should be taken into consideration to form a better conclusion.

argument 147
This company introduced several games and made a survey, then it reach a conclusion that the sales are likely to increase in the next mouth. For further thinking, there are 4 obvious mistakes in the author's idea.
First of all, the company made a survey. Yes, actions speak louder than words, make a survey is much better than a group of people sitting there just analysis without data in hands. But in the passage, the author just say the survey ask video-game players, and the games are appeal to the people 10 to 25 years old, what if the survey ask a lot mid-aged people, old people
or kids under ten? So this is the first mistake in the paragraph.
Second, besides the players, the games itself is also a very important part, but the author did not describe anything about the game. A game is not only a kind of software for the player to have fun on it, it contains much more. A game is a reflection of a value. Different games convey different themes and ideas. Whether the game itself is good enough is very important. If the theme of the game is not attractive, no matter what kind of advertisement they make, it is of no use. And the people 10 to 25 years old are not strong buyers，the potential consumers are their parents, whether the games can attractive them both is a question.
third, all the business activities are dealing in the market, and every time we draw a conclusion, we have to make the word “market” into our consideration。
Maybe there are several companies which invent better games that the Whirlwind video games can compare with, or the market is full of this kind of games and never need any more. What is more, what is the economic level we are facing now ？
Fourth, there is another question that the author said by inventing new games may increase their sales. As it is said the sales of the old games haves declined over the past two years, so there is a possibility that it may decline again, especially there are new games' impact. Let’s make an assumption: the sales for the new games are increasing, but the old games are still declining all the time, and the increasing part can not fill the declined part. In total, considering this, the sales may still defined.
Finally, the author's explanation can convince me to believe that the sales the Whirlwind video games will increase.


argument 178
In this passage, they author try to convince us that by changing the way to pay the employees can save money and the company can earn a profit in the coming year. There are problems in the author's explanation which made me can agree with him/her.
First of all, the author's idea is just an assumption, nowadays there hardly exist any product can be made by only one person, almost all the producing is a process of team work. And paying by time is more efficiency than paying by quantity, because the latter one needs extra people to count the quantity.
Ignore what I explained before, there are still problems. Here are them:
1. Quality is not equal to quantity, and paying by each brush can just increase the quantity, we can not reach a conclusion that it will lead to the production of better brushes, on the contrary, more and more employees want to make more brushes and ignore the quality.
More brushes don not means more and better brushes, if a lot of the unqualified bushes are，the company may in a risk.
2. Because paying by the quantity, the employees themselves may work overtime increase their working hour in order to make more brushes and it means more money. Considering this, saving the electricity cost seems unbelievable. And the only thing the employees care about is quantity, I don not think it does good to save the security costs, by some way, the cost may increase.
3. The author also stated that paying by quantity can help to judge the workers and keep the beat ones, which I cannot agree. Judging by quantity, the ones that doing well in their job may not the best ones, but the fastest ones. And the best ones are not equal to the best one. The faster the better but the "best" contains much more, I don't think a work make 10 brushes per hour but none of them is qualified, is better than a work who make 2 brushes but they two are of good quality.
In a summary, there are many logic problems as I have already pick out several points, and because of this the author's explanation could not convince me. I don't think we can reach the conclusion that the company can earn a profit in the coming year just as the author state.

ARGUMENT 147
147The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
------------------------------
思路：
调查人群是否集中在青少年中，是否男性，女性及其他人群不见得认为画面重要
这种游戏价格本身就很贵，有多大市场很难说
对电脑要求很高，有多大市场很难说；很多玩家可能无法运行，特别是10-25岁的人一般无力购置配置高的电脑，家长对他们玩游戏也有所限制
公司的情况不明，是否在开发此类游戏上很有经验，市场风险大竞争激烈，即便购买也不一定购买该公司产品
该结论太武断

In this argument, the arguer predicts that the sales of Whirlwind video will probably soar in the next few months due to the release of several games of lifelike graphics, with an extensive advertising campaign targeting at teenagers and youth between the ages of 10 to 25 years old. To support this prediction, the arguer cites the result of a resent survey that video-game players thought lifelike graphics were most important in a video game. He also indicated that people from 10 to 25 years old are most likely to play video games. The argument seems to be logical; however, a second thought would reveal how groundless it is.

First, the survey, which the arguer cited as a support towards the argument, is not clear about how it was conducted. Was the survey mainly conducted among young male video game players? If so, it is possible that there are more female players and players of other age group prioritize how entertaining or how easy the game is over its graphics. Besides, the survey might be conducted among an insufficient amount of video games players. Therefore it is difficult to determine the priority of the entire group based on such a survey.

Second, the video game provides lifelike graphics is usually higher in price, which is usually crucial factor in sales. It also requires high configuration of the computer. Although many video game players may prefer video game of lifelike graphics, they may not able to run it on their own computer. Especially for people from 10 to 25 years old, they are not likely to afford high configured computer on their own. Their parents, who are usually not allow them to play video games for a long time, are not likely to buy high configured computer for them. All these reasons will limit the prospective of the video games of lifelike graphics in the market.

Third, the background information of Whirlwind has not been mentioned in this argument. If Whirlwind is not experienced in the field of lifelike graphics, its products may not be competitive enough. It may also take a long time for Whirlwind to develop a video game of lifelike graphics. A long developing time may cause a problem in capital flow. Generally speaking, there is a big risk in market. The video games of lifelike graphic may bring deficit instead of profit.

In summary, this argument is not persuasive as it stands. To make it more convincing, the arguer would have to provide more evidence concerning the survey on the priority of the video games players when they purchase the video games. A survey should be conducted to clarify the targeted buyer’s configuration of their computer. To better evaluate the argument, we would also need more information regarding the background information of Whirlwind. If the argument includes the factors discussed above, it would have been more convincing.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.

"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 292          TIME: 0:38:31          DATE: 2008-5-4

While in this argument the writer of the magazine claimed that the sales trend of Whirlwind video games likely to be reversed. To solidify his argument, the arguer cited a survey of video-game players. But a carefully examination can easily reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

The major flaw is the arguer does not know the essential elements of a computer games. It is just a part of attractive aspects, lifelike graphics, the plays mentioned in the survey. The themes, story, stimulating are still the aspects impelling players to consume. Furthermore, without the purchasing possibility, interest can not turn into consuming. So, to make it into a reasonable price is another way to increase sales.

For another thing, the survey is not done under a scientific way. There is no statistics concerning the age, income, education of the responders, with which we can better analysis the players of video-game. Besides, their is no evidence to shown the age-group which most likely to play video game is the people from 10 to 25, so it is still doubtful of the efficient by impose the advertisement to such a kind person.

The last but not least, the arguer fails to take into account the factors which induced the decline of the sales directly. It might be performed better if the decline caused by the lake of promotion. But in other view, such like the economic depression in a extensive industry, the advertising cannot performed a positive effecting, but on the contrary, may increase the expense and therefore reduce total profit of the company.

In summary, to better profits the company, the arguer would have to produce more statistics concerning the temptation of the players and point out the real relationship between the advertisement and the sales.

TOPIC: ARGUMENT178 - The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company.

"In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year."
WORDS: 307          TIME: 0:34:54          DATE: 2008-5-5

While in this argument, the president of the National Brush Company (NBC) claimed that they will save the spending and earn more profits by pay the employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. To support his argument, the arguer conducts a set of logical ratiocinations. But a careful examination can easily reveal how groundless the conclusion is.

The major problem in this argument is the president neglect the possible way to make his idea into practice. As we do not know the process of producing brush, it is hardly for us to make a reasonable project, but there still some situations which cannot be paid by the quantity they produced. For example, the brush is made in a production-line. So we can not classify the brush to a certain person.

In the second place, as the payment correlated with the production, the worker must seek for more quantity by which may influenced the quality. As we known, quantity and quality are the both side of a coin, you cannot see them at once. The high quantity must conduct to a low quality which may badly influenced the credit of the company, therefore make a long-term lost for the company.

Finally, the argument omits several other concerns that should be addressed. There is no information concerning the production situation at present, herpes the worker are try their best to produce, so the stimulating way can not influenced the production. Furthermore, the profit is mainly depends on the sales, for the brush cannot meet the need of the market, the more you product the more you will lose.

In summary, to better get profits, the arguer would have to find the real obstacle such as the style of his brush, the price, promotion. Then seek a sufficient way to organize the production.

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argument 第一次修改11号phenomenal

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