昨晚写完第一篇arg，实在是很不满意，发现对arg最精华的部分没有掌握，整篇文章缺乏有力连贯的逻辑结构，很难以理服人
如果这么机械地写下去，没有任何意义。推倒重来，字数上有了很大进步，但是也超时了5分钟，主要是框架上，大家有空的话，再帮我看看，哪里还有问题，怎么改进。谢谢昨天帮我改文的同学：）谢谢
TOPIC: ARGUMENT147 - The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
WORDS: 523 TIME: 0:36:01 DATE: 2006-8-7
The editorial asserts that in the next few months, the sales of Whirlwind video games will gain a dramatic increase after two years' decline. This conclusion is based on a survey of several video-game players, showing that what they thought the most important feature to make the games attractive is the lifelike graphics, which is assumed as one of the characters of the newly introducing Whirlwind video games. In addition, the editor also mentioned an extensive advertising campaign to make the inference seem logical, however, it in fact suffers from some fallacies in several aspects.
In the first place, the editorial provides nothing about the reliability of the survey based on. Lacking information about the respondents renders the survey not convincing as it stands. Therefore, the survey result is open to be doubted probably for that the respondents can not represent the real group of video-game players at all. Even if the sample is sufficed to be representative, the conclusion is still not convincing that the lifelike graphics is the most important feature to shape a well-performance of the video-game. When players come to choose one video-game, there are much more considerations than just the image-stimuli, the story-line, the experience feeling and such kinds of factors will influence the player's choice. Without a comprehensive consideration of all these, the survey lends no support to the informed recommendation.
Even though the survey is statistical credible, sales is not a simple event that just determined by the pure desire of the customers. Running a sales business means that all of the products are engaged in the market, which is determined a lot by the whole nation economy situation, also by the quality of the goods itself, the brand reputation, the business competitors and so on. The fact that Whirlwind video games have suffered a decline over the past two years obviously gives us the hint that there must be something wrong during its sales management. And it could not be handled easily by bringing in some new techniques, or soly by the advertising campaign which has never been proved effective. Maybe the old Whirlwind video games were also promoted by the same advertising agency, which did not work on the sales of the company. It will be hasty to say that the sales will be improved based on these ungrounded assumptions.
Furthermore, as what is brought up in the essay, the lifelike graphics require the most up-to-date computers. It means that people should pay more for enjoying this video-game, and it is quite possible that the age-group most likely to play video games, 10 to 25 years old assumed in the article, can not afford to get the video-game. If it is the case, the sales of Whirlwind video games could not reverse itself, let alone dramatically.
To sum up, the assertion lacks credibility because evidence cited in the analysis does not lend any support to convince us that the sales of the Whirlwind video games will miracly be rescued from the decline trends. To strengthen the argument, we have to be provided more about the whole situation of the contemporary video-games market as a reference.
